AARO Website Launch: Al Taqaddum Resolution

Brief

On October 23, 2017, an IR sensor aboard a force-protection blimp at Al Taqaddum Air Base, Iraq recorded 17.5 minutes of footage showing an unidentified floating object. AARO analyzed full-motion video, metadata, line-of-sight data, scenario reconstructions, and weather records, concluding with high confidence the object was a cluster of fully and partially inflated balloons traveling at 4–14 mph at an assessed altitude of 850–2,200 feet. An alternative hypothesis positing a camouflaged quadrotor UAS was formally considered and rejected on two grounds: the object drifted with the wind rather than maneuvering, and no motor heat signatures appeared in the IR footage.

Metadata

Agency

All-domain Anomaly Resolution Office (AARO), U.S. Department of Defense

Release

2023-08-31

Type

PDF • .pdf

Length

3 pages

Classification

UNCLASSIFIED

Tags

balloon cluster, infrared sensor, Iraq, 2017, Al Taqaddum Air Base, aerostat platform, force protection asset

Key points

• AARO's top-line finding carries high confidence: the object did not exhibit anomalous behavior or capabilities and was consistent with a balloon cluster.p.1
• The recording platform was an aerostat (blimp) operating at 2,700 feet; the IR sensor captured 17 minutes and 30 seconds of footage.p.1
• Assessed object altitude was 850–2,200 feet and assessed speed was 4–14 mph, with uncertainty attributed to variability in historical and real-time wind data.p.2
• The fluctuating infrared return, often cited as anomalous in public commentary, is explained as an artifact of the sensor auto-adjusting grayscale values against a changing background.p.2
• Dangling strings whose shape and number change across frames are consistent with a balloon cluster shifting position relative to the sensor, not with a rigid or propelled object.p.2
• An AARO partner independently proposed a quadrotor UAS under camouflage netting; AARO and its partners jointly discarded this theory based on wind-drift behavior and the absence of heat signatures.p.2
• Figure 1 presents stills from the 17-minute video with different assigned color temperatures to aid visualization; the document explicitly notes this is an analytical aid, not the raw sensor output.p.3

Verbatim

• AARO assesses with high confidence that the Al Taqaddum object did not exhibit anomalous behavior or capabilities.

  p.1

• On October 23, 2017, an infrared (IR) sensor aboard an aerostat force protection dirigible (blimp) operating at 2,700 feet above Al Taqaddum Air Base, Iraq, recorded 17 minutes and 30 seconds of footage featuring an unidentified object that appears to be floating above the ground.

  p.1

• AARO based this assessment on analysis of full-motion video, video metadata, line-of-sight, scenario reconstructions, and weather data analysis.

  p.1

• AARO assesses with moderate confidence that the object's altitude was between 850-2,200 feet and that the object was moving at 4-14 miles per hour (mph), due to the variability in both historical and real-time wind data.

  p.2

• The fluctuating IR return of the object is a result of the sensor constantly adjusting to assign grayscale values to every pixel, which maximizes the visual dynamic range in a diverse and changing background.

  p.2

• The video is somewhat grainy, becoming increasingly grainy toward the end of the clip, which is likely due to the object's increasing distance from the sensor.

  p.2

• One of AARO's partners theorized that the object could be a quadrotor Unmanned Aerial System (UAS) draped in camouflage netting, though this theory is unlikely for two reasons:

  p.2

Most interesting

• The case is known colloquially as the 'jellyfish UAP' due to the object's appearance in infrared, but the document attributes that morphology entirely to balloons with dangling strings shifting relative to the sensor.
• AARO's own partner agency independently reached a different initial theory (camouflaged quadrotor drone) before both parties converged on the balloon explanation, signaling some genuine analytical dispute prior to resolution.
• The reporter is listed as 'Unknown', the footage was captured automatically by a base force-protection asset, not filed by a named witness.
• The blimp sensor was at 2,700 feet while the object itself was assessed at 850–2,200 feet, meaning the object may have been only a few hundred feet below the sensor at closest approach.
• AARO explicitly flags that the document 'should not be considered finished intelligence' and that it is not a member of the Intelligence Community, a notable caveat given the DoD provenance.