DISCLOSURE / FILE
Part 4 of Project Condign Volume 1 presents the statistical core of the DI55 study, arguing that meteor-derived atmospheric plasmas account for a substantial share of UAP reports in the UK Air Defence Region.
Part 4 of Project Condign Volume 1 presents the statistical core of the DI55 study, arguing that meteor-derived atmospheric plasmas account for a substantial share of UAP reports in the UK Air Defence Region.
This segment covers the statistical correlation work between UAP reports and natural phenomena across 1995-1998, with focused analysis on 1996. DI55 found no direct solar correlation but reported a mathematical correlation of 0.62 between meteor shower activity and UAP report frequency, with date-exact matches on multiple 1996 peaks. Of 1014 UAP events reported in 1995-1996, only 27 had meteor-like trails, which the authors read as evidence that the public distinguishes meteors from anomalous objects. Witness analysis covers 850 reports including 36 from police officers and 278 from declared professionals, with 15 percent of 1996/97 reports corroborated by multiple witnesses.
No direct solar correlation was established.p.1
It is postulated that a plasma formed from the vaporisation of a solid meteor of sufficient size will comprise millions of particles.p.2
The mathematical correlation taken over the year is over 60% (0.62). This is a reliable positive correlation which would probably have been much higher if man made sources of UAP reports were filtered out.p.4
The investigation showed that on only 27 occasions out of 1014 UAP events reported for 1995 and 1996 did UAP have 'trails', 'tails' or were 'comet like' or 'meteor like'.p.5
For the sample of events taken from the period 1987 to 1991, 36 reports were from Police Officers, 278 from witnesses in declared professions, many from ex-servicemen and women, only nine were from 'ufologists'.p.5
There is no evidence to suggest that UAP favour militarily strategic locations.p.9
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this was done in 2 monthly (i.e ~ 60 day periods), for the overall period Mar 1995 to
1997 i.e. x 2 monthly samples. However, the overlap periods of the plots were also
investigated - in case correlation happened to occur at one or more of these periods.
Cogniscant of the fact that the appearance of UAPs transcends our terrestial calender,
[which is purely a convenient set of markers to use as a time scale in this case]; data
was investigated for possible relationships which might be significant:
- Direct correlation of UAP events within either high, level or low SSN,
or FLUX periods.
- Apparent trend correlation of UAP events with the longer solar cycle
trends. (To carry out this fully would ideally require at least 22 years of
results; as the solar cycle lasts 11 years!)
- The possibility of a delayed correlation if the UAP event curve is
shifted to the right (to test for UAP increased frequency of reports after
the high (or low) solar activity).
- The probability that UAP events occur due to an amplitude change but
not necessarily consistent with solar peaks or troughs.
- The probability of a correlation when the SSN/FLUX reaches a
minimum level or, conversely falls below a certain level; or remains
level (i.e. constantly high or low) over a correlated period of reported
UAP activity. It is reiterated that this can only be a loosely based
analysis because of the possibility that many more events have
occurred, possibly in geographical clusters and possibly on certain days
- but these have not been seen; or have been seen but not reported.
52. Results No direct solar correlation was established. Much more work would be
necessary to establish whether combinational effects are responsible - for example
combinations of certain weather conditions. However, the tentative link with meteors
(see below) seems more tangible.
53. Correlation Studies - Meteors While it has become clear during investigations that
a large number of variables are involved in the consistency of UAP reporting, and it is
acknowledged that there are likely to be more meteors mis-reported as UAPs when, for
example, the sky is clear, the weather is fine and warm (inducing more people out of
doors in the dark), and when there is a higher forecast meteor activity; further analysis of
the reports and correlation with UAP dates, has revealed some interesting facts which
may have a direct bearing on at least one possible cause of the unexplained object
phenomenon.
54. Meteor activity is continuous in the earth's atmosphere. Every year it is
estimated that some 40 tons of matter hits the earth's surface, but this is only a small
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this was done in 2 monthly (i.e ~ 60 day periods), for the overall period Mar 1995 to
1997 i.e. x 2 monthly samples. However, the overlap periods of the plots were also
investigated - in case correlation happened to occur at one or more of these periods.
Cogniscant of the fact that the appearance of UAPs transcends our terrestial calender,
[which is purely a convenient set of markers to use as a time scale in this case]; data
was investigated for possible relationships which might be significant:
- Direct correlation of UAP events within either high, level or low SSN,
or FLUX periods.
- Apparent trend correlation of UAP events with the longer solar cycle
trends. (To carry out this fully would ideally require at least 22 years of
results; as the solar cycle lasts 11 years!)
- The possibility of a delayed correlation if the UAP event curve is
shifted to the right (to test for UAP increased frequency of reports after
the high (or low) solar activity).
- The probability that UAP events occur due to an amplitude change but
not necessarily consistent with solar peaks or troughs.
- The probability of a correlation when the SSN/FLUX reaches a
minimum level or, conversely falls below a certain level; or remains
level (i.e. constantly high or low) over a correlated period of reported
UAP activity. It is reiterated that this can only be a loosely based
analysis because of the possibility that many more events have
occurred, possibly in geographical clusters and possibly on certain days
- but these have not been seen; or have been seen but not reported.
52. Results No direct solar correlation was established. Much more work would be
necessary to establish whether combinational effects are responsible - for example
combinations of certain weather conditions. However, the tentative link with meteors
(see below) seems more tangible.
53. Correlation Studies - Meteors While it has become clear during investigations that
a large number of variables are involved in the consistency of UAP reporting, and it is
acknowledged that there are likely to be more meteors mis-reported as UAPs when, for
example, the sky is clear, the weather is fine and warm (inducing more people out of
doors in the dark), and when there is a higher forecast meteor activity; further analysis of
the reports and correlation with UAP dates, has revealed some interesting facts which
may have a direct bearing on at least one possible cause of the unexplained object
phenomenon.
54. Meteor activity is continuous in the earth's atmosphere. Every year it is
estimated that some 40 tons of matter hits the earth's surface, but this is only a small
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SECRETSound is a very rare event from a UAP, indicating that air is not being thrust, as in a normal propulsion mode.
The charged nature of UAP appears to result in forces which enable motion to take place in a direction against the wind.p.7
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UK RESTRICTED UK EYES ONLY proportion of that which enters the atmosphere and, in theory is said to burn-up. If it is postulated that a proportion of the material neither impacts the surface or burns complet up it is necessary to conjecture what form this might take, whether it exists at all and how long it might persist if it exists in another form etc. It is not clear why there is a dearth of information in the scientific press on this possibility. It seems unreasonable to assume that all meteors will either burn up completely or reach the surface, without the possibility of some intermediate state. It also seems reasonable to assume that any material which, having sped through the atmosphere at enormous velocity and attained a very high ionisation temperature, must exist in gaseous form before dispersing. It is postulated that it may, instead of (or as well as) forming a gaseous plasma viewed as a visible luminous stream, form (due to variations in atmospheric density and other factors) a single or several plasma bodies. A plasma is a charged body of gas. Rather like ball, or bead lightning, which is formed during a lightning strike it seems possible that multiple rather than single gaseous entities may be formed which might be seen as visible shapes. Meteoroid definitions are at Figure 3-17. 55. It is postulated that a plasma formed from the vaporisation of a solid meteor of sufficient size will comprise millions of particles. These particles will have collected an electrical charge due to a combination of friction and currents which could be expected to flow as the stream passes through both the earths natural electrical field and any other enhanced fields that may be present at the time due to electrical storm activity. Many meteors are of no consequence being microscopic in size. They would not produce a plasma with sufficient energy. However, some of the meteors which have reached the surface as meteorites are known to contain magnetic and other elements. On entering the atmosphere they may already have properties (e.g. electrical or magnetic currents) of unknown magnitude, of which we are unaware and which may influence their final form as they come towards earth. 56. Similarity to UAP. While lunar activity generates ambient light and this determines, even on a clear night, whether the meteors can be seen as they approach, it is assumed that statistically, seen or unseen, meteors will enter the earth's atmosphere at any position around the earth. They will either completely burn up, impact as meteorites or, from the rationale above, it is therefore suggested that under certain conditions the residual material from a meteor could form a buoyant plasma or 'fireball' in the lower atmosphere. During its life, and before natural dispersion, it is likely that such an object would be reported as a UAP. Meteor arrive singly or in multiple showers. These often overlap for significant periods during the year. A plasma formed as described above would appear to have most, if not all the attributes of the objects which are regularly reported as UAP. Therefore, the investigations and findings related to meteors are of special interest. 57. Details of meteor activity are constantly monitored and meteor showers can be predicted using the Meteor Shower Calendar, produced by the International Meteor Organisation (IMO). Meteor shower data was obtained for the years 1995-1998. As 23 UK EYES ONLY UK RESTRICTED SECRET
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UK RESTRICTED UK EYES ONLY [FIGURE: Horizontal bar chart] Legend: LOCNS X-axis label: NUMBER OF LOCATIONS X-axis values (right to left): 3, 5, 7, 9, 11, 13, 15, 17, 19, 43 Y-axis label: NUMBERS OF UAP REPORTED Y-axis scale: 0, 10, 20, 30, 40, 50, 60, 70 [Bars showing decreasing frequency: longest bar at 3 locations (~65), shorter bar at 5 locations (~20), progressively shorter bars at 7, 9, 11, 13, 15, 17, 19, and 43 locations] FIGURE 3-3 FREQUENCY OF REPEAT SIGHTINGS AT SAME LOCATION FOR PERIOD 1987-1991(U) 37 UK EYES ONLY UK RESTRICTED SECRET
UK RESTRICTED UK EYES ONLY proportion of that which enters the atmosphere and, in theory is said to burn-up. If it is postulated that a proportion of the material neither impacts the surface or burns complet up it is necessary to conjecture what form this might take, whether it exists at all and how long it might persist if it exists in another form etc. It is not clear why there is a dearth of information in the scientific press on this possibility. It seems unreasonable to assume that all meteors will either burn up completely or reach the surface, without the possibility of some intermediate state. It also seems reasonable to assume that any material which, having sped through the atmosphere at enormous velocity and attained a very high ionisation temperature, must exist in gaseous form before dispersing. It is postulated that it may, instead of (or as well as) forming a gaseous plasma viewed as a visible luminous stream, form (due to variations in atmospheric density and other factors) a single or several plasma bodies. A plasma is a charged body of gas. Rather like ball, or bead lightning, which is formed during a lightning strike it seems possible that multiple rather than single gaseous entities may be formed which might be seen as visible shapes. Meteoroid definitions are at Figure 3-17. 55. It is postulated that a plasma formed from the vaporisation of a solid meteor of sufficient size will comprise millions of particles. These particles will have collected an electrical charge due to a combination of friction and currents which could be expected to flow as the stream passes through both the earths natural electrical field and any other enhanced fields that may be present at the time due to electrical storm activity. Many meteors are of no consequence being microscopic in size. They would not produce a plasma with sufficient energy. However, some of the meteors which have reached the surface as meteorites are known to contain magnetic and other elements. On entering the atmosphere they may already have properties (e.g. electrical or magnetic currents) of unknown magnitude, of which we are unaware and which may influence their final form as they come towards earth. 56. Similarity to UAP. While lunar activity generates ambient light and this determines, even on a clear night, whether the meteors can be seen as they approach, it is assumed that statistically, seen or unseen, meteors will enter the earth's atmosphere at any position around the earth. They will either completely burn up, impact as meteorites or, from the rationale above, it is therefore suggested that under certain conditions the residual material from a meteor could form a buoyant plasma or 'fireball' in the lower atmosphere. During its life, and before natural dispersion, it is likely that such an object would be reported as a UAP. Meteor arrive singly or in multiple showers. These often overlap for significant periods during the year. A plasma formed as described above would appear to have most, if not all the attributes of the objects which are regularly reported as UAP. Therefore, the investigations and findings related to meteors are of special interest. 57. Details of meteor activity are constantly monitored and meteor showers can be predicted using the Meteor Shower Calendar, produced by the International Meteor Organisation (IMO). Meteor shower data was obtained for the years 1995-1998. As 23 UK EYES ONLY UK RESTRICTED SECRET
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explained in the Working Paper at Volume 2, there are both predictable meteor
showers and sporadic meteors. An investigation was therefore made into the incidence
of UAP reports and the arrival of one or more coincident meteor showers. According
to the IMO there are 38 named meteor showers which were forecast to arrive in the
year 1996. Since this was a high incidence year for UAP reports it was appropriate to
make statistical studies for this year.
58. Meteor showers arrive singly or in multiple showers. These often overlap for
significant periods during the year. For 1996 up to eight named showers arrived at the
same time and lasted for a period of several days, sometimes for up to 30 days.
However, it is important to note that the showers build to peaks on specific named
days. Each type arrives with differing velocities and different densities (rates per
hour). The arrival of meteors in the atmosphere is the cause of meteor trail reports
which are often visible to the unaided eye. As most members of the public are
aware of and recognise them as such, they do not report them as UAP. The object of
this part of the study was to ascertain statistically whether there was an increase in
UAP reports when meteor activity was high but when meteor trail reports were
low. This would suggest that the public reports would most probably be as the result
of meteor activity even though the reports did not report meteors. If it could be
further shown that a statistical variation of UAP with meteor activity exists, then this
would explain many of the hitherto inexplicable UAP events and re-enforce the
exceptional correlation which was becoming evident with the attribuites of gaseous
plasmas.
59. For analysis it was assumed that, statistically, the phenomena was likely to occur
when the IMO predictions suggested that:
- Several showers of different types occur at the same time.
- A meteor 'peak day' occurs.
60. Some significant 1996 correlation results are plotted at Figure 3-18. The curves
show three sets of data, plotted, for convenience, in increments of five days: the UAP
rate over each five day interval, the coincident number of different shower types in the
same five day interval and, finally, the hourly meteor arrival rate forecast within each
five day period. The maximum five-day rate for UAP reports in 1996 was 30 and the
lowest was zero. The maximum number of coincident meteor showers was eight. The
maximum arrival rate was 143,000 per hour, boosted particularly by 'Geminids',
'Quadrantids' and 'Perseids', each contributing over 100,000 meteors per hour when
they were near. Even the least active shower releases 2000 per hour. It should be noted
that although not all meteors will approach UK airspace, when the highest density rate
is expected then the probability of an increase in UAP reports is clearly present. The
objective is to discover whether this ic coincident with a correlated increase in UAP
reports
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61. From the Figure it is immediately evident from the coincident rise and fall of the
curves that there is correlation between the number of meteor showers present and the
meteor hourly rate (known as the ZHR). This is expected. The important fact is the
correlation between the meteor curves and the UAP report curve The mathematical
correlation taken over the year is over 60% (0.62). This is a reliable positive
correlation which would probably have been much higher if man made sources
of UAP reports were filtered out. As has been proved, many reports will be due to
over 20 types of other natural aerial phenomena, plus man made phenomena, ranging
from lightning and fireworks to laser displays. Perhaps an even more stringent test is
that of comparing the actual dates of peak UAP sightings with the actual dates of the
meteor peaks, rather than those grouped into 5 day intervals:
Meteor Peak UAP Peak Meteor Velocities (km per sec)
January 4 January 7 28, 41*, 65
February 7 February 8 23, 30, 56*
February 25 February 26 23*, 30, 56
March 14 March 18 23, 30, 56*
March 25 March 30 30*
May 6 May 4 30, 66*
August 18 August 18 25*, 31, 34, 42, 59, 66
November 13 November 13 27, 29*
November 25 November 25 27, 28, 29, 60
December 6 December 6 22, 28, 40*, 42, 58
December 14 December 14 22, 28, 35*, 40,42, 58, 65
Note : * indicates that this day was a peak for that particular meteor
shower type. However, at present, with insufficient evidence, there is no
suggestion that one meteor shower type is likely to cause UAP to form,
more than any other.
62. Significantly it is noted in conclusion that the correlation is date-exact on several
occasions and nearly so on the others. There seems little doubt, therefore, that natural
UAP reports are correlated with high incidence of meteor activity and, from this
evidence it seemed a strong possibility that meteor activity accounts for some UAP
reports.
63. It is noted that the co-incidence of peak meteor dates and UAP reports is
statistically very high and cannot be due to chance. The fact that sometimes the UAP
peak occurs before the meteor peak is not a problem - it is merely that, as the meteor
peak date approaches and the entry rate increases, more UAP are seen on adjacent
days, than on the peak day itself. This variation could easily be due to the weather
(overcast and low visibility) and that (meteor-generated) UAP did in fact occur where
there was no one to see them! - or just that the meteorological conditions present in
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SECRETUK RESTRICTED UK EYES ONLY the atmosphere on the meteor peak days was not suitable for plasma formation. The other key factor, of course, is that gaseous body plasmas did not fall within the airspace of the UKADR on that day - or even if the opportunity to form a plasma occurred, it's subsequent reporting was not viable. The position at which a plasma is eventually formed, assuming a meteor does not burn-up or impact after diving, must depend on the angle of entering the atmosphere, the velocity and the atmospheric conditions (e.g. temperature layers, dust, electrically charged layers, wind). It is clear that an observer noting the falling trail of a meteor may be hundreds of kilometres from its eventual landfall. 64. The final meteor-related investigation was to examine each of the UAP reports on the peak dates to ascertain that they were not merely reported as meteor trails, but more tangible and representative of the exceptional bodies often reported. RESULT OF METEOR INVESTIGATION 65. The investigation showed that on only 27 occasions out of 1014 UAP events reported for 1995 and 1996 did UAP have 'trails', 'tails' or were 'comet like' or 'meteor like'. Many of those with tails were reported not as meteors but as other types of event which happened to have tails. It is concluded therefore that the pblic are well aware of the difference between a familiar meteor trail and an unusual phenomenon. It is not unreasonable to suppose that, disregarding any man-made objects which were misreported during 1996 (and in other years) there is a high probability that the remaining events were largely due to meteor plasmas. Some may have been due to other atmospheric electrical events such as lightning. The peak reporting periods which co-incided with meteor shower peaks were not mistaken reports for falling meteors, but were clearly events which occurred after the plasmas had been formed, were usually at low altitude and exhibited the regularly-seen erratic, bobbing, hovering and climbing motion which would not be mistaken by the public and other credible witnesses. In fact, it is clearly to the public's credit that they rarely report meteors as UAP. HUMAN FACTORS 66. No attempt has been made to separate so-called credible reports from all others, as in intelligence analysis all information, however innocuous, is valuable for correlation purposes until decided otherwise by the analyst. For the sample of events taken from the period 1987 to 1991, 36 reports were from Police Officers, 278 from witnesses in declared professions, many from ex-servicemen and women, only nine were from 'ufologists'. These together with all reports from undeclared observers were treated as corroborating evidence where possible in individual cases and as a body of reports which cannot be ignored or dismissed lightly. In the 1014 1996/97 reports 15% were corroborated and often were seen at the same time by a dozen or more witnesses who must be considered reliable. Very few (for example 1.2% in a sample of over 1000 UAP events) were seen on the surface or close enough to surface objects to cause surface effects to the countryside, property or to humans. 26 UK EYES ONLY UK RESTRICTED SECRET
UK RESTRICTED UK EYES ONLY Exceptionally, some railway sleepers were set on fire and sometimes the ground was scorched. Effects on humans were minimal, mainly being limited to fright, 'car following', often for several miles and, occasionally, interference with vehicle electronics. Taking all the currently reports held (~30 years), there is insufficient data to carry out a statistical analysis on human effects. WITNESS GENDER & AGE. 67. A very small proportion of witness reports involve children, usually aged ~8- 15. Sometimes adults have been alerted by children, leading to a multiple witness event. In a sample of 850 reports although 64% were submitted by men (who are more likely to walk outdoors in the evening and night by themselves), many hundreds of reports were correlated and confirmed by multiple witnesses of both genders, located at the same place and time, and often accompanied by the civil police, called to the scene. The viewing and reporting of UAP is therefore not a function of gender or age. However, as pointed out at Volume 2, Working Paper No 25, certain types of person may be more susceptible to the apparent fields which emanate from some UAP. These fields are only effective when the recipient of the energy approaches the source to a short distance and enters what appears to be the source 'near field', using the terms of conventional field theory. WITNESS LOCATION 68. While using individual circumstances to enable the filtering of the most obvious misreports (reflections through glass, etc.), no consistent occasions have been found which have caused obvious misreporting due to the location of the observers, causing, for example, optical errors. The incidence of these is small. Valid reports are received from witnesses from all walks of life and in diverse locations, and few, if any, can be attributed to an aberration caused by the location. For example, a phenomenon initially viewed through a car or building window is usually still present when the window is opened or the observer goes outdoors for a better view. The number of optical aberrations causing misreporting are probably very small for surface-based observers and more likely from aircraft, where curved and sandwich windows, rather than flat glass/perspex is used, the duration and field of view is often limited, and for obvious reasons the windows cannot usually be opened. Few observers are up in the mountains at night so there are few opportunities to obtain a view of a UAP from above, from a stationary position, although, (see Volume 2 Working Paper No 13), other unfamiliar, atmospherically-produced phenomena can occasionally be seen.(U) STATISTICAL CONCLUSIONS 69. The key conclusions are based only on analysis of the available data. No attempt is made here to apply the popular conclusions which the public reach, following a set of UAP behaviour. The key to the enigma of the hitherto unsolved proportion of UAP reports is undoubtedly the proven link with meteor activity and the UAP reports which coincidentally follow if the conditions pertain: 27 UK EYES ONLY UK RESTRICTED
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• It is clearly of no consequence as to whether a human is present or not. There
have never been any reports that a human has attracted a UAP, however a vehicle
may do so. This is attributed to its possible net field charge.
• UAP can climb as well as fly level or dive, do so more than once and do so
rapidly and repeatedly. This is believed to be caused by a change in buoyancy or
charge, or in both. Sometimes this phenomenon occurs after more than one UAP
have merged together, or, it is believed, new UAP magnetic or electrical charge or
temperature conditions have occurred.
• The merging of UAP together is frequently reported - but for this to occur
they are always in fairly close formation to start with.
• There are isolated occasions when UAP in motion close together diverge. It is
believed that this occurs when the attraction between them becomes weak and one
or other is attracted away by a stronger field.
• The charged nature of UAP appears to result in forces which enable motion to
take place in a direction against the wind.
• Some UAP have been reported emanating a beam or beams of light. Either
these have a finite internal source of energy at optical wavelengths or
continuously change or retain some form of energy which is emitted as visible
light. The only reasonable alternatives are that the UAP emanation comprises
charged particles, which either themselves emit light (luminescent) or they
reflect ambient light from their particles, viewed in a similar manner to a
sunbeam. If charged particles are involved then the presumed discharge path
rapidly starts to affect the life and physical nature and position of the plasma.
These conclusions are made because observations of this phenomenon is often
described as a 'beam' or 'beams' and is often downwards, after which the
body invariably changes its charateristics or motion or even disappears
altogether.
• There are a limited number of occasions when an apparently solid object is
reported in daylight often as a silhouette. This is believed, when a plasma is
involved, to be due to total internal reflection. Descriptive shapes, such as
triangles, are usually accompanied by a 'light'. This, from the evidence, appears
sometimes as what seems to comprise several separate gaseous plasmas, often
brilliant in intensity and colour in a loose aerial formation. The outlying plasmas at
each extremity are used by the observer to describe the overall shape. The shape
described is dependent on the position of the observer. It is noted that aspect plays
an important part in shape description. A formation of plasma balls forming a
'triangle' or a 'diamond' when viewed in plan, takes the form of a 'cigar' when
viewed side-on. The presence of bright spots in a plasma formation can easily be
described as a row of lit 'portholes'.
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• Sound is a very rare event from a UAP, indicating that air is not being thrust, as in
a normal propulsion mode. This is generally reported as 'electrical', humming,
'whining' or 'crackling'.
• Smell is similarly a rare event and again is described as 'electrical.'
• Because light is the primary mode of observation the statistics show 64% are seen
in darkness and 10% in dusk conditions.
• UAP reports can originate from single or multiple sightings at the same location.
Because, once formed, UAP can travel at all altitudes, sometimes at high
speeds for their duration, the same object or objects can be seen by observers at
large geographical separations.
• UAP life can vary from seconds to, exceptionally, tens of minutes. If the UAP
is a plasma its life is limited and it probably starts to disperse from the moment it
finds a discharge path. At this point its life either ends abruptly, or its internal
characteristics change (a probable change in charge and buoyancy). These usually
cause it to move. It may have sensed a more attractive electrical or magnetic field.
• It has been shown that more than one UAP event can be present in UK
airspace on the same day and at the same time at widely spaced locations.
There is no indication that these have initially diverged or subsequently have
merged. Those that diverge or merge appear as a group within the same
location over a limited volume of airspace, usually a few hundred metres in
diameter.
• UAP reports are not evenly spread from day to day. The daily sighting reports
vary between zero and up to several tens per day. There is no doubt that 99% of
these are genuine reports irrespective of whether they are from trained or untrained
members of the public.
• The UAP peak in February was unexpected - as during cold winter nights fewer
reports would be expected as fewer observers are outdoors. Clearly, despite fewer
observers, more reports are generated, because more UAP are apparently present.
• UAP events, plotted as date and frequency, have been shown beyond doubt to
be statistically-correlated to the dates and densities of meteor activity on the
assumption that the proportion of meteors entering the Earth's atmosphere
are sensibly distributed across the UKADR .
• Apart from aircraft passenger reports (very rare), few, if any, public reports could
be rejected due to the credibility of location (e.g. distortion and misunderstandings
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produced by viewing through glass). After initial contact those indoors usually
obtained a direct sight line by going outdoors or opening windows.
• Repeat UAP sightings at different times and dates through the year which
have occurred at the same location cannot be shown to have any relevance to
the location. However, it is suspected that the likelihood of UAP may be
enhanced by certain locations where electrically-charged plasmas would be
expected to be attracted. For example, towards aircraft and aircraft environments
such as airfields and air corridors, electrical pylons, electrical rail-lines, charged
dust particles in industry or over towns. There is no evidence to suggest that UAP
favour militarily strategic locations.
• While a proportion of the large numbers of reports received in the vicinity of
airports, military airfields and air corridors are due to misreports of aircraft, most of
the public who live in these areas are quite capable of discerning the
difference between something which is a part of their daily lives and
something which has characteristics out of the ordinary.
• Relatively few reports are received from Wales, Scotland, the IOW, NI, IOM and
the Outer Isles and from ships in UK waters and from aircraft crews, compared
with land-based observers in England. This fact is attributed to a combination of
the many factors which must affect aerial observation, including population
distribution, airports and air corridor densities, work patterns in the big cities and
terrain.
• Lightning can be present for some two hours after a storm and also present when a
storm has taken place elsewhere. Ball lightning, which is a plasma form, and
which has been replicated in the laboratory, accounts for a number of UAP
sightings.
• Statistical investigations, using weather data, have shown that UAP can occur
when there is no thunder present anywhere in the UKADR. Hence the
conclusion can be drawn that some events reported as UAP (after filtering out
known mis-reports of aircraft, satellites etc.) must be due to other causes.
• Statistical analysis of UAP colour has shown that, either by day or night, the UAP
is reported as having a 'light' or 'lights'. One third of all sightings reported more
than one ( and as many as eight) white light(s).
• On the majority of occasions a single light was reported as a 'round' object, even
when the observer could only see the light and not the actual shape if there was
one.
• On about 7% of occasions UAP were perceived as 'solid' objects. [Working papers
at Volume 2 describe the physics of how it is believed this can occur].
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• There is no statistical evidence to show that UAP form at any particular time
of day. It is believed that UAP which cannot be explained as man made or by
other less well known atmospheric activity are spread more or less randomly in
time and date and caused partially by lightning but mainly by meteor activity. It is
inevitable that more will be reported when the eye is attracted in dusk or darkness,
especially if unusual motion is taking place.
• About 14% were reported as 'spinning', 1.6% as 'pulsating' and 'bobbing' or
'erratic'. Usually reports are made because this is an unfamiliar motion of lights in
the sky. It is believed that a body of gases which may have varying internal
processes taking place, including effects which vary buoyancy and electrical charge
may exhibit such motion.
• Positive (+0.62) correlation was shown between thunder (lightning present)
and the presence of UAP reports. This was taken as a whole over the country.
No attempt was made to link UAP locations with thunder locations from the
reporting meteorological stations. However, the opposite (UAP present without
lightning present), was also confirmed; as is the case that even with thunder
present there were many days when the lightning did not produce UAP
reports.
• No correlation of UAP reports was found with Solar Flux or Sunspot number.
• Although 64% of reports were forwarded by men, the statistics showed that UAP
could be observed by either gender and by children (who frequently called adult
attention to unfamiliar sights).
• Over the period 1987-1996 the number of days per year on which there were no
reports of UAP has been significantly decreasing (from 280 down to 130).
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1987 1988 1989 1990 Mean
ENGLAND [1] 109(87%) 319(89%) 200(89%) 102(83%) 87%
SCOTLAND 6(4%) 23(6%) 11(5%) 12(10%) 6%
WALES 10(8%) 15(4%) 13(6%) 3(7%) 6%
TABLE 3-1 PERCENTAGE OF REPORTS BY NATION
Note: The number of sightings from Northern Ireland, The Isle of Man, the Outer Scottish
Isles and The Isle of Wight are negligible and are included in the appropriate mainland
totals.
1987 1988 1989 1990 Mean(%)
DAWN 3 25 18 10 7
DAYLIGHT 18 87 42 12 21
DUSK 22 39 20 4 11
DARKNESS 88 211 192 40 60
TABLE 3-2 EXAMPLE BREAKDOWN OF TIME OF DAY OF REPORTS
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Year Jn Fb Mr Ap My Jn Jl Au Sp Oc Nv De Rounded
Total
1987 2 7 6 5 6 1 8 26 16 16 19 19 120(150)
1988 41 48 38 21 24 28 17 28 30 31 28 32 365(397)
1989 17 12 14 7 9 9 26 21 28 32 39 11 225(258)
1990 15 11 7 - - - - - 10 24 8 15 90
1991 10 9 3 2 4 5 14 7 10 13 5 4 85(117)
1992 7 18 2 - - - - 8 1 11 - 5 147
1993 1 - 1 - 2 4 3 9 (258)
1994* (250)
1995 40 16 28 10 22 27 21 29 22 36 33 20 284
1996 19 71 38 42 44 24 79 80 53 52 55 35 595
1997 35 28 32 95*
Notes: *Report details incomplete. 1995 figures for first 3 months only.
Bracketed figures show some differences in overall totals due to inaccurate
report counts, pre1994.
TABLE 3-3 NUMBERS OF EVENTS PER MONTH OVER 10 YEARS (U)
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Year Jn Fb Mr Ap My Jn Jl Au Sp Oc Nv De Monthy Rounded
Average Totals
1987 29 21 25 26 26 29 24 15 21 20 21 22 21 280
1988 12 8 11 18 17 17 19 15 13 17 15 22 15 180
1989 16 18 21 24 23 23 16 19 11 12 12 23 18 220
1995 13 16 15 24 18 17 20 13 15 14 12 18 15 185
1996 19 8 15 9 9 19 7 6 4 10 10 16 13 130
Mean 18 14 17 20 18 21 17 13 13 14 14 20 16
TABLE 3-4 NUMBERS OF DAYS PER YEAR WITH NO SIGHTINGS
REPORTED FOR 5 YEARS BETWEEN 1987-1996 (U)
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[MAP: Aerial navigation chart of southeast England showing UAP assessed track for 18 June 1988. Location labels visible include: PANSHANGER, WYCOMBE AIR PARK, BERKHAMPSTEAD, DENHAM, ELSTREE, NORTHOLT, LONDON HEATHROW AIRPORT 0-2500 MSL, FAIROAKS, BLACKBUSHE, FARNBOROUGH, ODHAM, LONDON GATWICK 0-2500 MSL, REDHILL, BIGGIN HILL, LONDON CITY AIRPORT 0-2500 MSL, STAPLEFORD FAIRNEY, SOUTHEND, ROCHESTER, WHITE WALTHAM. Alphanumeric codes visible include: A01, GS01, GS06, GS07, LA02, LA04, LA07, MS04, PA04, PA05, PA24, PA25, PA26, PA32, PA03, HA01, HA02, HA03, FMP114, FP03, D133, D133A, D132, D136, D149, D14, MS01, R107, GS02. Time stamps plotted on tracks: 2107, 2110, 2112, 2115, 2190, 2035, 3065, 305, 16.5. Note: THESE CHARTS ARE GR[APHIC] REPRESENTATIONS ONLY AN[D NOT] INTENDED AS NAVIGATIONAL PL[ATS]. AREA 1B.]
Notes: The tracks could represent one or several UAP. After leaving Godalming(S of Guildford) the UAP
may have remained unreported an re-emerged in the Southend area and towards Danbury for 7
minutes. A track appears to start N of London at 2110, where it was seen twice (or there may have
been two objects) and proceeded roughly SSW towards Danbury. Alternatively, the 2115 hrs
Danbury event may have been a second sighting of the 2107 event, as may have beeen one or both
of the Brentwood events. Danbury is on a hill. only on exceptionally clear conditionswould it be
possible to see an event at Danbury from Brentwood or vice versa. However, an observer at both
places would be jointly able to see a target midway between these locations. A time error in the
Rochford report would result in the complete (double arrow) track sequence from Hemel Hempstead
to Rochford.
FIGURE 3-1 PLOT OF UAP ASSESSED TRACK
(Date: 18 June 1988)
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[MAP: Aerial navigation chart of northeast England/Yorkshire showing assessed UAP track for 20 December 1988. Location labels visible include: TEESIDE CTA, Marske/New Marske, Guisborough, Northallerton, LEEMING, TOPCLIFFE, DISHFORTH, LINTON-ON-OUSE, Knaresborough, Haxby, Harrogate, Wetherby, York, Ripon, Pledcar, Skelton/Brotton/Saltburn, Whitby, Pickering, Malton/Norton, Scotch Corner (implied). Alphanumeric codes visible include: GS01, GS02, GS04, GS06, GS15, GS16, LA02, LA03, LA06, LA07, LA08, LA22, LA44, LA47, LA49, LA56, LAS, MA01, MA04, ME17, MS01, MS04, MS06, MS13, MS15, IH03, IH21, IH22, IH45, IH46, PA10, SA03, CA17, CA1, D441, D410, R315. Time stamps: 2350, 2345, 2350, 233, 2335, Max 1000, 2358. Arrow indicating southerly track direction.]
NOTES: An approximate 60nm per degree has been assumed for plotting purposes at this
latitude. The most Northerly observation point is Scotch Corner, with Richmond
to the SSW. It is not known whether the object described a zig-zag, curved or
straight southerly path.
FIGURE 3-2 PLOT OF ASSESSED UAP TRACK
(Date: 20 December 1988)
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SECRETUK RESTRICTED UK EYES ONLY [FIGURE: Horizontal bar chart] Legend: LOCNS X-axis label: NUMBER OF LOCATIONS X-axis values (right to left): 3, 5, 7, 9, 11, 13, 15, 17, 19, 43 Y-axis label: NUMBERS OF UAP REPORTED Y-axis scale: 0, 10, 20, 30, 40, 50, 60, 70 [Bars showing decreasing frequency: longest bar at 3 locations (~65), shorter bar at 5 locations (~20), progressively shorter bars at 7, 9, 11, 13, 15, 17, 19, and 43 locations] FIGURE 3-3 FREQUENCY OF REPEAT SIGHTINGS AT SAME LOCATION FOR PERIOD 1987-1991(U) 37 UK EYES ONLY UK RESTRICTED SECRET