CEFAE Informe de Casos 2018

Brief

CEFAe received 21 cases in 2018 satisfying its dual requirement of formal testimony and supporting evidence; all were classified as OVIs (Objetos Voladores Identificados) through photographic analysis with IPACO software, satellite simulation via Stellarium, and the commission's standing application of Occam's Razor. Eight additional reports were discarded for missing documentation despite repeated follow-up. The commission also revisited two long-standing unexplained cases: the 1972 Campo de Mayo incident (now attributed to a barium cloud from ionospheric experiments) and the 1995 Bariloche case (now linked to a sky-tracer searchlight). This was the last annual report issued under the CEFAe name before the 2019 reorganization into CIAE.

Metadata

Agency

Comisión de Estudio de Fenómenos Aeroespaciales (CEFAe) / Fuerza Aérea Argentina

Release

2019-01-01

Type

PDF • .pdf

Length

81 pages

Classification

UNCLASSIFIED

Programs

CEFAe, CIAE, IPACO, Stellarium

Tags

Argentina, 2018, OVI/UAP photographs, satellite misidentification, Iridium flare, biological misidentification, photographic analysis, CEFAe, CIAE, UMMO hoax, Bariloche 1995, Campo de Mayo 1972, Cosmos 2425, Ariane 40

Key points

• All 21 cases analyzed in 2018 were resolved as conventional objects (OVIs); zero cases remained classified as unexplained.p.2
• Eight additional reports were excluded from analysis because witnesses failed to supply a completed testimony form or required evidence, despite repeated contact attempts by the commission.p.2
• The commission's foundational analytical method is the Navaja de Occam: move from the simplest hypothesis to the most complex, comparing against all known conventional causes before advancing.p.4
• Three photographic analysis programs and three astronomical and satellite-tracking programs were employed across the 2018 case set.p.2
• IPACO software's 'Hilo Vertical' (Vertical Thread) tool detected suspension strings in suspected hoax images, including independent confirmation of the nylon thread used in the 1966 UMMO fraud by José Luis Jordán Peña.p.12
• The Santa Lucía (San Juan, 24 March 2018) sighting was matched by Stellarium simulation to two satellites — the Ariane 40 spent rocket body at 809 km altitude and Russian Cosmos 2425 at 19,130 km — converging in the southern sky at precisely 20:35:00 local time.p.14
• The Los Menucos Iridium flare case (1 April 2018) was attributed to Iridium 71; the peak magnitude was estimated at -8, nearly three times the average brightness of Venus.p.18
• The index confirms the 1972 Campo de Mayo 'enigmatic' case was resolved as a barium cloud released for ionospheric experiments, and the 1995 Bariloche case was resolved as a sky-tracer searchlight.p.3
• Director of CEFAe is signed as Com. (R) Rubén Lianza.p.2

Verbatim

• Si bien la totalidad de los casos aquí analizados han sido originados por causas de origen conocido, constituyen sin embargo testimonios muy valiosos desde el punto de vista de la Metodología de Identificación

  p.2

• la existencia de un mayoritario porcentaje de OVIs (Objetos Voladores Identificados) producto de interpretaciones honestas pero erróneas de objetos ordinarios, considerados por los testigos como extraordinarios al momento de la observación

  p.2

• Cualquier discrepancia vertida en redes sociales o foros no académicos, sin confrontar en primer lugar con nuestros resultados, no será considerada una oposición científicamente válida.

  p.2

• En igualdad de condiciones, la explicación más sencilla suele ser la más probable

  p.5

• Elegí al azar la estrella Wolf 424 ya que mi objetivo real no era desarrollar un mundo extra-planetario creíble.

  p.11

• el centro del destello puede haber alcanzado por escasos segundos, una magnitud de (- 8), es decir, superando en casi tres veces al brillo promedio del planeta Venus

  p.18

• desde un décimo piso y con la ventana abierta

  p.20

Most interesting

• The 1966 UMMO hoax — a decades-long fake extraterrestrial civilization invented by José Luis Jordán Peña, who confessed in detail to Spanish police — is used by CEFAe as a calibration test for IPACO's Vertical Thread tool, which reproduces the nylon-thread histogram spike matching Jordán Peña's own confession.
• A 2018 civilian photograph from Valle de la Luna (Mondragón case) initially appeared to show a UMMO-style 'flying saucer'; telephone follow-up revealed the witness had forgotten he was inside his car when he took the photo — the object was the reflection of his gear shift knob in the driver's window.
• The Iridium satellite flare network allows predictions precise enough that CEFAe directs the public to online flare-prediction tables so observers can pre-position a tripod-mounted camera and photograph the event at the forecast second.
• CEFAe explicitly rejects social-media debate as scientifically valid rebuttal: objectors are required to present counter-evidence in person at the commission's office.
• The 'flying rod' phenomenon — widely promoted as fast-moving unknown entities — is identified in the Capilla del Monte case as insects crossing a camera at below-30-frames-per-second shutter speeds, with wing-beat cycles frozen as multiple apparent appendages per frame.
• This was the final annual report under the 'CEFAe' name; the commission was reorganized as CIAE (Centro de Identificación Aeroespacial) in 2019.