DISCLOSURE / FILE
Wilbert B. Smith's June 1952 interim report on Project Magnet, a Department of Transport study of flying-disc sightings, concluding the data point toward a substantial probability of extra-terrestrial vehicles.
Project Magnet, Final Report, Project_Magnet_Report_1952.pdf
Wilbert B. Smith's June 1952 interim report on Project Magnet, a Department of Transport study of flying-disc sightings, concluding the data point toward a substantial probability of extra-terrestrial vehicles.
Project Magnet was authorized in December 1950 by Commander C.P. Edwards, then Deputy Minister of Transport for Air Services, and run by senior radio engineer W.B. Smith inside the Broadcast and Measurements Section of the Telecommunications Division. The 1952 report breaks down 25 proper sightings investigated by the Department of Transport: ten circular or elliptical bodies (shiny by day or luminous at night) carry a combined 91% reliability weight, and of eleven sightings classed as strange objects the analysis judges the alien-vehicle class more probable than a secret terrestrial missile. Smith deduces the vehicles are roughly a hundred feet or more in diameter, capable of several thousand miles per hour, and operating at altitudes beyond conventional aircraft, and concludes their technology is probably extra-terrestrial. Appendix B records that an instrument hut at Shirley Bay was equipped with a magnetometer, gamma-ray counter, radio set and gravimeter feeding a four-pen recorder, in operation since October but with no saucer data yet obtained.
Project Magnet was authorized in December, 1950, by Commander C.P. Edwards, then Deputy Minister of Transport for Air Services, for the purpose of making as detailed a study of the saucer phenomenae as could be made within the framework of existing establishments.p.1
Considering the circular or elliptical bodies together, their weight works out at 91% for the ten sightings, from which we may conclude that SOMETHING answering this description was actually observed.p.4
Of the eleven strange objects the probability definitely favours the alien vehicle class, with the secret missile included with a much lower probability.p.5
They are a hundred feet or more in diameter; they can travel at speeds of several thousand miles per hour; they can reach altitudes well above those which would support conventional aircraft or balloons; and ample power and force seem to be available for all required manoeuvres.p.6
It appears then, that we are faced with a substantial probability of the real existence of extra-terrestrial vehicles, regardless of whether or not they fit into our scheme of things.p.6
A particular effort was made to find an optical explanation for the sightings listed in this report, but in no case could one be worked out. It was not possible to find so much as a partial optical explanation for even one sighting.p.6
The instruments are; a compass type magnetometer, a gamma ray counter, a radio set and gravimeter. The outputs of these four instruments are arranged to draw proportional traces on a 4 pen recorder.p.8
It is therefore submitted that the next step in this investigation should be a substantial effort towards the acquisition of as much as possible of this technology, which would without doubt be of great value to us.p.6
Extracted text · Page 1
Page 1 · vision OCR
5-10-325
PROJECT MAGNET REPORT
During the past five years there has been accumulating
in the files of the United States Air Force, Royal Canadian Air
Force, Department of Transport, and various other agencies, an
impressive number of reports on sightings of unidentified flying
objects popularly known as "Flying Saucers". These files contain
reports by creditable people on things which they have seen in
the sky, tracked by radar, or photographed. They are reports
made in good faith by normal, honest people, and there is little
if any reason to doubt their veracity. Many sightings undoubtedly
are due to unusual views of common objects or phenomenae, and
are quite normal, but there are many sightings which cannot be
explained so easily.
Project Magnet was authorized in December, 1950, by
Commander C.P. Edwards, then Deputy Minister of Transport for
Air Services, for the purpose of making as detailed a study of
the saucer phenomenae as could be made within the framework of
existing establishments. The Broadcast and Measurements
Section of the Telecommunications Division were given the
directive to go ahead with this work with whatever assistance
could be obtained informally from outside sources such as
Defence Research Board and National Research Council.
It is perfectly natural in the human thinking mechanism
to try and fit observations into an established pattern. It is
only when observations stubbornly refuse to be so fitted that we
become disturbed. When this happens we may, and usually do,
take one of three courses. First, we may deny completely the
validity of the observations; or second, we may pass the whole
subject off as something of no consequence; or third, we may
accept the discrepancies as real and go to work on them. In
the matter of Saucer Sightings all three of these reactions
have been strikingly apparent. The first two approaches are
obviously negative and from which a definite conclusion can
never be reached. It is the third approach, acceptance of
the data and subsequent research that is dealt with in this
report.
The basic data with which we have to work consist
largely of sightings reported as they are observed throughout
Canada in a purely random manner. Many of the reports are from
the extensive field organization of the Department of Transport
whose job it is to watch the sky and whose observers are trained
in precisely this sort of observation. Also, there are in
operation a number of instrumental arrangements such as the
ionospheric observatories from which useful data have been
obtained. However, we must not expect too much from these
field stations because of the very sporadic nature of the sight-
ings. As the analysis progresses and we know more about whatPage 2 · vision OCR
- 2 -
to look for we may be able to obtain and make much better use
of field data. Up to the present we have been prevented from
using conventional laboratory methods owing to the complete lack
of any sort of specimens with which to experiment, and our
prospects of obtaining any in the immediate future are not very
good. Consequently, a large part of the analysis in these
early stages will have to be based on deductive reasoning, at
least until we are able to work out a procedure more in line
with conventional experimental methods.
The starting point of the investigation is essentially
the interview with an observer. A questionnaire form and an
instructional guide for the interrogater were worked out by
the Project Second Storey Committee, which is a Committee
sponsored by the Defence Research Board to collect, catalogue
and correlate data on sightings of unidentified flying objects.
This questionnaire and guide are included as Appendix I, and
are intended to get the maximum useful information from the
observer and present it in a manner in which it can be used to
advantage. This form has been used so far as possible in
connection with the sightings investigated by the Department
of Transport.
A weighting factor is assigned to each sighting
according to a system intended to minimize the personal equation.
This weighting system is described in Appendix II. The weighting
factor may be considered as the probability that the report
contains the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth,
so far as the observer and interrogater are aware. It has
nothing to do with the nature of the object claimed to be seen.
It is in a sense analagous to the order of precision with which
a measurement may be made, and for the purpose of this analysis
this is precisely the manner in which it is used.
Sightings may be grouped according to certain salient
features, and the combined weight of all pertinent observations
with respect to these features may be determined by applying
Peter's formula, which is a standard mathematical technique for
determining probable error.
r0 = .8453 (v1 + v2 + v3 + .......... vn)
n √ n - 1
where r0 is the probable error of the mean, n is the number of
observations and v is the probable error of each observation,
that is, unity minus the weighting factor. This method has the
advantage of being simple and easy to use and enables a number
of mediocre observations to be combined effectively into the
equivalent of one good one.Page 8 · vision OCR
APPENDIX "B"
Based on the conclusions of the 1952 report, it was felt that
certain of the phenomenae would probably be accompanied by physical
effects which could be measured, and since measurements are always more
satisfactory than qualitative observations, it was decided to try and
get some measured data.
Whether the phenomenae be due to natural electromagnetic causes,
or alien vehicles, there would probably be associated with a sighting
some magnetic or radio noise disturbance. Also, there is a possibility
of gamma radiation being associated with such phenomenae.
It has been suggested by some mathematicians that gravity waves
may exist in reality, as well as a convenience to make an equation balance.
While we know practically nothing of such waves in nature, nevertheless, if
the possibility exists, flying saucer phenomenae, being largely an
unknown field, might be a good place to look for such gravity waves.
Therefore, a group of instruments was set up in a hut at Shirley
Bay for the purpose of trying to get measurements which could be tied to
one or more actual sightings. The instruments are; a compass type magneto-
meter, a gamma ray counter, a radio set and gravimeter. The outputs of
these four instruments are arranged to draw proportional traces on a 4 pen
recorder.
These instruments went into operation last October and apart
from the usual bugs, seems to be operating satisfactorily. We have as
yet obtained no saucer data from them.
Our future plans include study of any data which we may get from
our Shirley Bay set-up, should we be so fortunate, as well as the continued
analysis of sighting reports which come in to us. We propose also to make
rigid analysis of unknown phenomenae to see how much can be explained on
this basis. Most of the previous work along these lines has been largely
qualitative and open to serious objection from the point of view of quanti-
tative analysis.
We intend to promote a study of gravity waves, whether within
this Department or outside to find out if:
a) They exist in nature
b) How we can detect them if they do
c) How to generate them, and
d) What they may be used for.Concatenated page-by-page transcript. Born-digital pages came through pdf.js; scanned pages were transcribed by Claude vision OCR. Pages marked unreadable failed multiple OCR retries (heavy redaction, microfilm artifacts, or blank separators) and are kept in place for audit.
5-10-325
PROJECT MAGNET REPORT
During the past five years there has been accumulating
in the files of the United States Air Force, Royal Canadian Air
Force, Department of Transport, and various other agencies, an
impressive number of reports on sightings of unidentified flying
objects popularly known as "Flying Saucers". These files contain
reports by creditable people on things which they have seen in
the sky, tracked by radar, or photographed. They are reports
made in good faith by normal, honest people, and there is little
if any reason to doubt their veracity. Many sightings undoubtedly
are due to unusual views of common objects or phenomenae, and
are quite normal, but there are many sightings which cannot be
explained so easily.
Project Magnet was authorized in December, 1950, by
Commander C.P. Edwards, then Deputy Minister of Transport for
Air Services, for the purpose of making as detailed a study of
the saucer phenomenae as could be made within the framework of
existing establishments. The Broadcast and Measurements
Section of the Telecommunications Division were given the
directive to go ahead with this work with whatever assistance
could be obtained informally from outside sources such as
Defence Research Board and National Research Council.
It is perfectly natural in the human thinking mechanism
to try and fit observations into an established pattern. It is
only when observations stubbornly refuse to be so fitted that we
become disturbed. When this happens we may, and usually do,
take one of three courses. First, we may deny completely the
validity of the observations; or second, we may pass the whole
subject off as something of no consequence; or third, we may
accept the discrepancies as real and go to work on them. In
the matter of Saucer Sightings all three of these reactions
have been strikingly apparent. The first two approaches are
obviously negative and from which a definite conclusion can
never be reached. It is the third approach, acceptance of
the data and subsequent research that is dealt with in this
report.
The basic data with which we have to work consist
largely of sightings reported as they are observed throughout
Canada in a purely random manner. Many of the reports are from
the extensive field organization of the Department of Transport
whose job it is to watch the sky and whose observers are trained
in precisely this sort of observation. Also, there are in
operation a number of instrumental arrangements such as the
ionospheric observatories from which useful data have been
obtained. However, we must not expect too much from these
field stations because of the very sporadic nature of the sight-
ings. As the analysis progresses and we know more about what- 2 -
to look for we may be able to obtain and make much better use
of field data. Up to the present we have been prevented from
using conventional laboratory methods owing to the complete lack
of any sort of specimens with which to experiment, and our
prospects of obtaining any in the immediate future are not very
good. Consequently, a large part of the analysis in these
early stages will have to be based on deductive reasoning, at
least until we are able to work out a procedure more in line
with conventional experimental methods.
The starting point of the investigation is essentially
the interview with an observer. A questionnaire form and an
instructional guide for the interrogater were worked out by
the Project Second Storey Committee, which is a Committee
sponsored by the Defence Research Board to collect, catalogue
and correlate data on sightings of unidentified flying objects.
This questionnaire and guide are included as Appendix I, and
are intended to get the maximum useful information from the
observer and present it in a manner in which it can be used to
advantage. This form has been used so far as possible in
connection with the sightings investigated by the Department
of Transport.
A weighting factor is assigned to each sighting
according to a system intended to minimize the personal equation.
This weighting system is described in Appendix II. The weighting
factor may be considered as the probability that the report
contains the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth,
so far as the observer and interrogater are aware. It has
nothing to do with the nature of the object claimed to be seen.
It is in a sense analagous to the order of precision with which
a measurement may be made, and for the purpose of this analysis
this is precisely the manner in which it is used.
Sightings may be grouped according to certain salient
features, and the combined weight of all pertinent observations
with respect to these features may be determined by applying
Peter's formula, which is a standard mathematical technique for
determining probable error.
r0 = .8453 (v1 + v2 + v3 + .......... vn)
n √ n - 1
where r0 is the probable error of the mean, n is the number of
observations and v is the probable error of each observation,
that is, unity minus the weighting factor. This method has the
advantage of being simple and easy to use and enables a number
of mediocre observations to be combined effectively into the
equivalent of one good one.- 3 -
The next step is to sort out the observations according
to some pattern. The particular pattern is not so important as
the fact that it should take account of all contingencies,
however improbable they may appear at first sight. In other
words, there must be a compartment somewhere in the scheme of
things into which each sighting may be placed, comfortably, and
with nothing left over. Furthermore, it must be possible to
arrive at each appropriate compartment by a sequence of logical
reasoning taking account of all the facts presented. If this
can be done, then the probability for the real existence of the
contents of any compartment will be the single or combined
weighting factor pertinent to that single or group of sightings.
The charts shown in Appendix III were evolved as a means for
sorting out the various sightings and provide the pattern which
was used in the analysis of those sightings reported to and
analysed by the Department of Transport.
Most sightings fit readily into one of the classifica-
tions shown, which are of two general types; those about which
we know something and those about which we know very little.
When the sightings can be classified as something we know about,
we need not concern ourselves too much with them, but when they
fit into classifications which we don't understand we are back
to our original position of whether to deny the evidence, dismiss
it as of no consequence, or to accept it and go to work on it.
The process of sorting out observations according to these charts
and fitting them into compartments can hardly be considered an
end in itself. Rather, it is a convenience to clarify thinking
and direct activity along profitable channels. It shows at
once which aspects are of significance and which may be bypassed.
Merely placing a sighting under a certain heading does not
explain it; it only indicates where we may start looking for an
explanation.
Appendix IV contains summaries of the 1952 sightings
as investigated by the Department of Transport. Considerably
more data exists in the files of other agencies, and more is
being collected as the investigations proceed. While it is not
intended to make any reference to an analysis of the records of
other agencies, it may be said that the Department of Transport
sightings are quite representative of the sightings reported
throughout the world. The following is a table of the breakdown
of the 25 proper sightings reported during 1952.- 4 -
NATURE OF SIGHTINGS NUMBER WEIGHT
Probably meteor ...................................... 4 ........... 91%
Probably aircraft .................................... 1 ........... 69%
Probably balloons .................................... 1 ........... 74%
Probably marker light ................................ 1 ........... 64%
Bright speck at night, not star or planet ......... 3 ........... 75%
Bright speck daylight, not star or planet ......... 1 ........... 68%
Luminous ring ........................................ 1 ........... 68%
Shiny cone ........................................... 1 ........... 53%
Circular or elliptical body, shiny day ............ 5 ........... 88%
Circular or elliptical body luminous night ........ 5 ........... 90%
Unidentified lights of various kinds .............. 2 ........... 77%
TOTAL NUMBER OF PROPER SIGHTINGS ..................25 ........... 96%
With reference to the above table, of the four cases
identified as probably meteors, their weight works out at 91%,
which is the probability that the observers actually did see
meteors which appeared as they described them. Considering the
circular or elliptical bodies together, their weight works out
at 91% for the ten sightings, from which we may conclude that
SOMETHING answering this description was actually observed.
Similarly we may consider each of the other groups of sightings,
taking account of the probability that the observations are reliable.
It is not intended to describe here in detail the
intricate and tedious processes by which the sightings are
evaluated, beyond the fact that the pattern set forth in the
charts of Appendix III is followed. The cardinal rule is that
a sighting must fit completely under one or more of the chart
headings, with nothing left over and without postulating any
additions, deletions, or changes in the facts as reported.
Should there be no suitable heading, then obviously the charts
must be expanded to provide one, in fact this was the evolution
of these charts. Where a sighting may be fitted under more than
one heading an arbitrary division of the probability of finding
it under each applicable heading is assigned. The sum of such
probability figures must of course be unity, and the probability
for the real existence under any particular heading is the product
of this probability figure and the reliability or weighting factor
for the sighting concerned.
It is apparent that the judgment of the people doing
the evaluating is bound to enter the picture and may produce
substantial numerical differences with reference to sightings
listed under certain headings. However, since many headings are
automatically eliminated by the nature of the facts available,
the discrepancies are confined to the probability figures for
the distribution under the remaining headings which are
considered eligible, and we end up with definite classifications
for the sightings with SOME probability figure for the reality
of each group. This has the effect of forcing those who are
doing the evaluating to face the reported facts squarely, pay
meticulous attention to them, and place each sighting honestly
under the only headings where it will fit.- 5 -
In working through the analysis of the proper sightings
listed, we find that the majority of them appear to be of some
material body. Of these, seven are classed as probably normal
objects, and eleven are classed as strange objects. Of the
remainder, four have a substantial probability of being material,
strange, objects, with three having a substantial probability
of being immaterial, electrical, phenomenae. Of the eleven
strange objects the probability definitely favours the alien
vehicle class, with the secret missile included with a much
lower probability.
The next step is to follow this line of reasoning as
far as possible so as to deduce what we can from the observed
data. Vehicles or missiles can be of only two general kinds,
terrestrial and extra-terrestrial, and in either case the
analysis enquires into the source and technology. If the
vehicles originate outside the iron curtain we may assume that
the matter is in good hands, but if they originate inside the
iron curtain it could be a matter of grave concern to us.
In the matter of technology, the points of interest
are: - the energy source; means of support, propulsion and
manipulation; structure; and biology. So far as energy is
concerned we know about mechanical energy and chemical energy,
and a little about energy of fission, and we can appreciate the
possibility of direct conversion of mass to energy. Beyond this
we have no knowledge, and unless we are prepared to postulate a
completely unknown source of energy of which we do not know even
the rudiments, we must conclude that the vehicles use one of the
four listed energy sources. Unless something we do not understand
can be done with gravitation, mechanical energy has little use
beyond driving model aircraft. We use chemical energy to quite
an extent, but we realize its limitations, so if the energy
demands of the vehicles exceed what we consider to be the reason-
able capabilities of chemical fuels, we are forced to the
conclusion that such vehicles must get their energy from either
fission or mass conversion.
With reference to the means for support, propulsion
and manipulation, unless we are prepared to postulate something
else quite beyond our knowledge, there are only the two groups
of possibilities, namely the known means and the speculative
means. Of the known means there is only physical support through
the use of buoyancy or airfoils, the reaction of rockets and
jets, and centrifugal force, which is what holds the moon in
position. Of the speculative means we know only of the possibility
of gravity waves, field interaction and radiation pressure.
If the observed behaviour of the vehicles is such as to be
beyond the limitations which we know apply to the known means
of support, then we are forced to the conclusion that one of
the speculative means must have been developed to do the job.- 6 -
From a study of the sighting reports (Appendix IV),
it can be deduced that the vehicles have the following significant
characteristics. They are a hundred feet or more in diameter;
they can travel at speeds of several thousand miles per hour;
they can reach altitudes well above those which would support
conventional aircraft or balloons; and ample power and force
seem to be available for all required manoeuvres. Taking these
factors into account, it is difficult to reconcile this performance
with the capabilities of our technology, and unless the
technology of some terrestrial nation is much more advanced
than is generally known, we are forced to the conclusion that
the vehicles are probably extra-terrestrial, in spite of our
prejudices to the contrary.
It has been suggested that the sightings might be
due to some sort of optical phenomenon which gives the appearance
of the objects reported, and this aspect was thoroughly
investigated. Charts are shown in Appendix III showing the
various optical considerations. Enticing as this theory is,
there are some serious objections to its actual application, in
the form of some rather definite and quite immutable optical
laws. These are the geometrical laws dealing with optics generally
and which we have never yet found cause to doubt, plus the wide
discrepancies in the order of magnitude of the light values which
must be involved in any sightings so far studied. Furthermore,
introducing an optical system might explain an image in terms of
an object, but the object still requires explaining. A particular
effort was made to find an optical explanation for the sightings
listed in this report, but in no case could one be worked out.
It was not possible to find so much as a partial optical
explanation for even one sighting. Consequently, it was felt
that optical theories generally should not be taken too seriously
until such time as at least one sighting can be satisfactorily
explained in such a manner.
It appears then, that we are faced with a substantial
probability of the real existence of extra-terrestrial vehicles,
regardless of whether or not they fit into our scheme of things.
Such vehicles of necessity must use a technology considerably in
advance of what we have. It is therefore submitted that the
next step in this investigation should be a substantial effort
towards the acquisition of as much as possible of this technology,
which would without doubt be of great value to us.
W.B. Smith
Engineer-in-Charge,
Project MagnetChart I SAUCER SIGHTING ANALYSIS Chart II SAUCER SIGHTING ANALYSIS Chart III SAUCER SIGHTING ANALYSIS [ILLEGIBLE - branching tree diagram with classification nodes including: Sightings, Strange Objects, Normal Objects, Material, Immaterial, Electrical, Thermal, Optical, Alien Vehicle, Secret Missile, Natural Phenomena, Known Phenomena, Unknown Phenomena, and various sub-nodes] Chart IV SAUCER SIGHTING ANALYSIS Chart V SAUCER SIGHTING ANALYSIS Chart VI SAUCER SIGHTING ANALYSIS [ILLEGIBLE - branching tree diagrams showing: Responsibility for Control, Responsibility for Manoeuvre, Simulation, External Dependence, Vehicles, Technology, Current — with sub-nodes including Life Forces, Physical Laws, Optical Laws, Light Path, Physical Connection, Refraction, Reflection, Observer, Optical Image, Optical and various measurement notation columns] Chart VII SAUCER SIGHTING ANALYSIS Chart VIII SAUCER SIGHTING ANALYSIS Chart IX SAUCER SIGHTING ANALYSIS [ILLEGIBLE - branching tree diagrams showing: Electrical, Aurora Polaris, Unused Gas, Lightning — with sub-nodes including Charge Accumulation, Charge Magnetic Field, Electrons, Photons, Fission Products, Electrical Current, Nuclear Reaction, Radiation — and Chart VIII showing Unknown Life Forms with sub-nodes — and Chart IX showing: Transit through solar system, Orbit around sun, Orbit around earth, Missile, Space station, Alien vehicle, Manned, Unmanned]
APPENDIX "B"
Based on the conclusions of the 1952 report, it was felt that
certain of the phenomenae would probably be accompanied by physical
effects which could be measured, and since measurements are always more
satisfactory than qualitative observations, it was decided to try and
get some measured data.
Whether the phenomenae be due to natural electromagnetic causes,
or alien vehicles, there would probably be associated with a sighting
some magnetic or radio noise disturbance. Also, there is a possibility
of gamma radiation being associated with such phenomenae.
It has been suggested by some mathematicians that gravity waves
may exist in reality, as well as a convenience to make an equation balance.
While we know practically nothing of such waves in nature, nevertheless, if
the possibility exists, flying saucer phenomenae, being largely an
unknown field, might be a good place to look for such gravity waves.
Therefore, a group of instruments was set up in a hut at Shirley
Bay for the purpose of trying to get measurements which could be tied to
one or more actual sightings. The instruments are; a compass type magneto-
meter, a gamma ray counter, a radio set and gravimeter. The outputs of
these four instruments are arranged to draw proportional traces on a 4 pen
recorder.
These instruments went into operation last October and apart
from the usual bugs, seems to be operating satisfactorily. We have as
yet obtained no saucer data from them.
Our future plans include study of any data which we may get from
our Shirley Bay set-up, should we be so fortunate, as well as the continued
analysis of sighting reports which come in to us. We propose also to make
rigid analysis of unknown phenomenae to see how much can be explained on
this basis. Most of the previous work along these lines has been largely
qualitative and open to serious objection from the point of view of quanti-
tative analysis.
We intend to promote a study of gravity waves, whether within
this Department or outside to find out if:
a) They exist in nature
b) How we can detect them if they do
c) How to generate them, and
d) What they may be used for.